By Geoff Smith (@smithco on Twitter)

Glimmer of hope for Alberta economy

Nov 2, 2016 | 9:12 AM

CALGARY — The worst of the economic downturn may be in the rear-view mirror — but people’s confidence will take a while to catch up.

ATB Financial’s latest Economic Outlook predicts growth of 2.1 per cent in 2017, after a 2.6 per cent contraction in 2016. The good news includes higher oil and gas prices, and stable retail and housing markets.

“(T)he balance of global supply and demand suggests that the worst of the global price colapse of 2016 is behind us,” the report says. “This should bring stability, but not yet renewed growth, to Alberta’s energy sector.” It adds investment in conventional oil and gas may increase by five to ten per cent.

Business and consumer confidence is still shaky, but may improve, according to the report. Unemployment is expected to stay high, and more people are moving to other provinces than those coming from other parts of Canada.

The forecast for the agriculture sector is described as “promising,” with a good outlook for forestry and another potential record year for tourism.

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Meanwhile, the Conference Board of Canada says consumer confidence in Alberta, which had rebounded from all time low in February, has given back most of that rebound in the latest index. The report cited Calgary’s unemployment rate of 9.5 per cent, highest of all major centres in Canada, as a big factor.