U of L Professor predicts “deeply divided country” after election

The hashtag #Wexit was trending on Twitter Monday night and into Tuesday, while the group Alberta Separation claims to have gotten over 1.1-million Twitter impressions in the 24 hours since polls opened.

Hale believes that, while some of the anger and frustration seen on social media may boil down to people not being happy with the results, “a great many people are upset in a way that goes beyond the moment.”

He says voter turnout in the prairies is also an indicator of how strongly people feel that a change of some sort needs to be made.

Nationally, 65.95% of eligible voters cast their ballots. Alberta was above that at 68.47% while Saskatchewan had the highest turnout of all provinces and territories at 71.72%.

Even locally in the Lethbridge riding, Hale talked about how many people hit the polls.

“Rachael Harder posted a very strong victory in Lethbridge. I think this is either the highest or second-highest percentage of the vote for any Conservative candidate I’ve seen in my 20 years here and we’ve had some very strong members.”

At the end of the day though, Hale does not believe that Wexit, or a western exit, is likely, as no one has come forward yet with a solid plan for how it would work.

“Tell me how you are going to make the economy stronger, people’s livelihoods more secure, and work with neighbouring jurisdictions to make it happen and you’ve got the pathway to a solution. Fly off the handle and you’re dealing with Uganda as opposed to Switzerland when it comes to landlocked nations. Landlocked countries with unstable neighbours are among the most insecure on the face of the earth.”

Both Alberta Premier Jason Kenney and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe have refused to fan the flames of separation, so it appears for now that both provinces will be staying in Canada.

After the polls closed this week, the Liberals appeared to be poised to form a Liberal minority government.

Hale says the party will probably not look to form a coalition with the NDP or Bloc Quebecois.

“[The Liberals] are talking to all parties, but senior Liberal strategists have suggested that their preferred option is to maintain a free hand given the fact that the Conservatives are far enough behind that they cannot credibly claim to form a government given the existing parliament.”

He tells LNN that this will prove to be the most effective option for the Trudeau administration in the long run, as it would allow them to make most decisions on their own while not being pulled in different directions by opposing parties.

“I think the Liberals have a year-and-a-half to two years to provide their version of good government, and if they have the chance to define themselves, both where they overlap with the New Democrats and where they offer some comfort to Liberal voters who might otherwise vote Conservative, the advantage is often with the governing parties in these situations.”

If the Liberals can get the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion built, Hale believes it will go a long way in easing separatist mentalities in the prairies.

by David Opinko

U of L Professor predicts “deeply divided country” after election

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