COVID-19. (Dreamstime)

By David Opinko

Diving deeper into Alberta’s “second wave” of COVID-19 so far

Nov 16, 2020 | 12:25 PM

LETHBRIDGE, AB – The numbers don’t lie, Alberta is in a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and it’s worse than the first.

This Tuesday marks eight months since the Government of Alberta first declared a state of emergency for the virus on March 17, 2020, while Remembrance Day was the eight-month point since the World Health Organization officially called COVID a pandemic.

We looked at the official statistics on COVID-19 from Alberta Health Services (AHS) to take a deeper look into how the numbers have trended in recent weeks and compare that to when the virus first took off back in the spring.

The first wave of COVID ran from mid-April to early May where there was a peak of 336 new confirmed cases on April 23. The highest number of hospitalizations reached their maximum on May 1 with 59 Albertans being admitted to non-ICU care and 21 to intensive care.

Alberta entered Stage 1 of the Relaunch Strategy on May 13 for most of the province. Brooks and Calgary, who were still dealing with higher case numbers, joined Stage 1 a little later.

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Stage 1 saw retail businesses, food establishments, and more places of business reopen with restrictions.

The following few months were quite quiet on the COVID front with Stage 2 commencing on June 12. This meant that K-12 schools, movie theatres, indoor recreation facilities, casinos, and a greater list of surgeries were able to operate.

After new cases dropped significantly in early May, they rose slightly in early-to-mid July and stayed around that level until the end of September.

Towards the end of July, hospital admissions returned to the levels seen at the peak of the first wave with the South Health Zone experiencing a sharp spike in its hospitalization rate around this time. Hospitalizations tapered off over the next couple of weeks.

The City of Lethbridge passed its temporary face mask bylaw on August 24, which required the use of face coverings in indoor, enclosed, publicly-accessible spaces. Several other Albertan municipalities enacted their own mask mandates around that time.

For total cases as well as hospital and ICU admissions, everything changed in the last two months.

Hospital and ICU admissions due to COVID-19 started their ascent in mid-September.

• Sept 13: 33 non-ICU, seven ICU
• Sept 20: 47 non-ICU, 12 ICU
• Sept 27: 56 non-ICU, 14 ICU
• Oct 4: 58 non-ICU, 14 ICU
• Oct 11: 85 non-ICU, 14 ICU
• Oct 18: 108 non-ICU, 16 ICU
• Oct 25: 100 non-ICU, 13 ICU
• Nov 1: 125 non-ICU, 29 ICU
• Nov 8: 150 non-ICU, 42 ICU
• Nov 12 (the most recent data currently available): 186 non-ICU, 54 ICU

On October 2, AHS confirmed 119 positive tests in the province, which was more-or-less on par with the trend over the prior two months. From there, the numbers sharply increased.

• Oct 2: 119 new cases
• Oct 9: 258 new cases
• Oct 16: 304 new cases
• Oct 23: 433 new cases
• Oct 30: 576 new cases
• Nov 6: 914 new cases
• Nov 13: 1,026 new cases

During the week of Friday, November 6 to Thursday, November 12, 5,446 new infections were confirmed across the province or an average of 778 per day.

Around four-out-of-five cases confirmed in this period were in the Edmonton and Calgary Zones at 42 per cent and 40 per cent respectively. The North Zone had 6.9 per cent of cases in the last week, the South Zone had 5.7 per cent, and the Central Zone had 4.4 per cent.

While the number of total COVID cases to date is fairly equal along gender lines, age certainly makes a difference.

For all age groups, about 3.6 per cent of those who contract the virus are hospitalized, 0.6 per cent are admitted to ICU, and 1.1 per cent have died.

Those aged 20-29 and 30-39 have tested positive for the virus in the greatest numbers, but seniors are the most likely to have severe outcomes.

Approximately 20 per cent of those aged 70+ who contract COVID are hospitalized (around six times the all-ages average), Among patients aged 80+, 20 per cent who get COVID die (nearly 20 times the all-ages average).

People who have other health conditions at the same time (comorbidities) are far more likely to experience severe outcomes than those who do not.

The Government of Alberta has implemented new temporary “targeted measures” for many areas across the province from November 13-27 as a way of mitigating the rising spread of COVID-19. More details here.

Total COVID-19 cases. (AHS)

Total COVID-19 cases. (AHS)

Total COVID-19 cases by age and gender. (AHS)

Severe outcomes by age. (AHS)

Severe outcomes by those with comorbidities. (AHS)

New cases reported between November 6-12, 2020. (AHS)

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