Health Minister Tyler Shandro. (Government of Alberta)

By David Opinko

"We want to equip Albertans with facts, not fear"

Province projects COVID variants could spread much faster than current strain

Jan 25, 2021 | 4:18 PM

LETHBRIDGE, AB – Alberta’s Minister of Health has released projections on how the variants of COVID-19 could spread without public health restrictions in place.

“We want to equip Albertans with facts, not fear,” says Tyler Shandro.

He reports that, so far, there have been 20 cases in Alberta of the U.K. variant of COVID-19 (B.1.1.7) and five cases of the one that originated in South Africa (501Y-V2).

Nearly all of these were the result of international travel, but Alberta’s first case of the B.1.1.7. variant that has no known link to travel over this past weekend.

Shandro shared a few graphs of how much spread could occur over a six-to-eight week period, assuming that proper restrictions are not in effect. The graphs can be viewed below.

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“The emerging research indicates that they have a significantly-higher infection rate, estimated to be 30-to-50 per cent higher than the strain that we’ve had in Alberta to date,” says Shandro.

“If the variant of concern spread unchecked in Alberta, it could produce up to 10,217 new cases every single day within a month and a half.”

Similar estimates were given for hospital and ICU admissions.

He noted, however, that while spread might occur more quickly and easily, it does not appear that either strain is more likely to have serious complications.

The minister’s projections are sort of a “worst-case scenario,” assuming that there are zero COVID-19 restrictions in place, and admits that what we will actually see will likely be less severe.

In order to keep spread down, he announced a few new initiatives:

• Increasing genetic testing to identify cases of COVID-19 variants (400 samples/week by next week)
• Expanding RAPID screening capacity for COVID-19 variants (300 samples/day by next week)
• Those utilizing the border pilot project for international travel must now self-isolate until a second negative test has come back. If either is positive, you must isolate for 14 days
  Projected COVID-19 cases over a six-week period including the new variants with no restrictions. (Government of Alberta)
  Projected COVID-19 hospitalizations over an eight-week period including the new variants with no restrictions. (Government of Alberta)
  Projected COVID-19 ICU admissions over a seven-week period including the new variants with no restrictions. (Government of Alberta)