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By Dori Modney with files from Agriculture Canada

First of its kind Drought Outlook tool in Canada

Jun 22, 2021 | 2:40 PM

LETHBRIDGE, AB. — It’s one of the biggest issues that farmers deal with every growing season and, unfortunately, it’s an element they have no control over. Weather patterns, and the potential they hold to devastate crops from hail, heat and drought bring costly results. Preparing for weather events can be critical and with that in mind, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) new Drought Outlook tool is being called as close to a “crystal ball” as future drought predictions can get!

Developed by a team of AAFC Agro-climate Specialists, including Trevor Hadwen, Marilee Pregitzer, Dr. Catherine Champagne, Calvin Poff, and Richard Warren, the Drought Outlook tool is the first of its kind in Canada for predicting future regional drought conditions.

Agroc-limate Specialist, Trevor Hadwen – Agriculture Canada

Hadwen explains it’s able to forecast 30-days into the future, based on AAFC’s current monthly Canadian Drought Monitor assessment in combination with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) precipitation and temperature forecasts.

“As risks from climate change increase, understanding how drought will affect farmers across the country has become very important. This tool will provide producers and other decision-makers with a sense of future drought conditions.”

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As part of AAFC’s Monitoring Mandate, the Drought Outlook’s regional forecasts are available through the Drought Early Warning System (DEWS), a national tool providing comprehensive drought information to decision makers to inform program and policy development.

As an Agro-climate Specialist, Hadwen pointed out, “The Drought Monitor is a true assessment of conditions rather than a modelled output. Our decisions are based upon what the indicators are showing us and what the farmer in one of those regions might be experiencing,”

Information for the tool is gathered from farmer-provided regional impact reports, agro-climate impact reports, satellite imagery, and a volunteer precipitation measurement group to reflect real conditions on the ground. As well, the recently-developed Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) provides a map of the agricultural regions in Canada where lack of moisture or too much moisture may be affecting vegetative health.

The Drought Outlook tool, is part of a larger suite of tools within through the Drought Monitor that can be used in drought preparedness and management and offers better planning to mitigate against drought-related impacts.

AAFC continues to monitor and provide early warnings for drought conditions through intergovernmental collaboration with the United States and Mexico as part of the North American Drought Monitor.

To learn more, please visit:

— Canadian Drought Outlook

— Canadian Drought Monitor

— Drought outlook the first of its kind in Canada to provide 30-day glimpse into future drought conditions