Podcast: Reason for optimism, says Scotiabank’s chief economist, Jean-Francois Perreault

Jean-Francois Perreault, who’s held several notable roles, including with Finance Canada and the Bank of Canada, spoke this week at a luncheon in Red Deer, hosted by ScotiaWealth Management and The Zukiwsky Group.

In an interview, Perreault acknowledged that there are perhaps more things than usual to worry about right now, economically speaking.

That includes, but is not limited to, a price shock on aluminum, the same for fertilizer, and, of course, Canadians are feeling it at the pump, all due to the war in Iran.

But he doesn’t feel it’s all doom and gloom.

“As much as the war in Iran is discombobulating and we’re paying more for gas and all those things, historically, these kinds of shocks have been pretty good for the country. That’s a very, very different perspective than what you’d get outside Canada, because most advanced countries are not commodity producers like we are,” he said.

Perreault clarified that war is not what anyone desires.

“Alberta is obviously the epicentre of the oil and gas industry, and oil is up significantly. That is unquestionably extremely good for the province.”

Other provinces don’t necessarily have the benefit of saying the same, because they don’t produce oil like Alberta.

Jumping to the recently announced Canada Strong Fund, the country’s first national sovereign wealth fund, which Prime Minister Mark Carney detailed at the end of April, Perreault said it has potential, but the jury will remain out on it for a while.

Per the Government of Canada:

“Initially, the government will provide $25 billion over three years, on a cash basis, to seed the Canada Strong Fund. The Fund will increase over time, both from the returns that it generates, and through other assets that the government may allocate to it.”

Canadians will also be able to participate — voluntarily, that is — by purchasing and holding shares.

“What I like about it is that it’s another proof point that [Carney] is really focused on raising investment in Canada. You want the private sector to do as much of that as possible, and this fund should supplement that to some extent,” he said.

“Ideally, you don’t need it. But investment over the last 15, 20 years has been really, really low. So Carney came in and [prioritized] a focus on productivity, and a focus on investment, and this is his latest iteration.”

Touching on immigration, which is currently being cut back by the federal government, Perreault believes numbers will eventually have to rise again, and agrees with Ottawa that newcomers are integral to the national economy.

Although it was by a sliver, he said the population should never go down in a country like Canada, which it did in 2025.

Perreault added, with respect to immigration, that perhaps the feds course-corrected a tad over-zealously, due to political pressure.

“We need the workers, there’s no question about it,” he said.

Then there’s the matter of separatism.

“It adds uncertainty in a world where there’s already lots of uncertainty. The concern we have about Alberta and maybe certain communities, is that [separatism] acts as a bit of a deterrent for folks who are thinking about deploying capital. Again, the polling is pretty clear: it doesn’t look like [anything] is going to pass, but it’s the noise,” said Perreault.

What’s your economic outlook, and is the country’s economy on the right track, Perreault was asked.

“I think we’re on as good a track as we can be given what’s going on. Again, it’s Trump-related uncertainty, and it’s Iran, but we’re reasonably optimistic about the way forward. If you set aside Iran for a moment… I’m an economist, so I’m biased, because Mark Carney is an economist, so he speaks my language to some extent, but I think he’s got the right idea,” Perreault remarked.

“He came in understanding that an extremely challenging issue for Canada has been poor productivity performance, and that’s linked to very low investment. He’s decided to move aggressively on that. There is more optimism about where we’re heading now than there has been in a very long time.”

The chief economist also surmises that if Carney can make progress, solid growth is in store, particularly in Alberta.

“Even though Trump has continued to say challenging things about Canada, and the world is going to be hit by other kinds of shocks, it’s just nice to be focused on the real economic challenges, and thinking about those intelligently, rather than what we’ve been doing for many, many years now,” he said.

“Commodity prices are going well, even though it’s because of the war, which is horrible in another part of the world; we’ve got political leaders thinking more intelligently about the world we’re in; and the relationship between Carney and Premier Danielle Smith is a world apart from how it was a few months ago. So I’d encourage people to think about this as a time of opportunity, as opposed to a time of risk.”

More of the conversation with Jean-Francois Perreault, chief economist for Scotiabank, can be heard on the May 8, 2026 episode of The Everything Red Deer Podcast! Listen weekly on rdnewsNOW.com, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, Pocket Casts, iHeart, and Radioplayer Canada.

by Josh Hall | @Vancan19

Podcast: Reason for optimism, says Scotiabank’s chief economist, Jean-Francois Perreault

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