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Voter Preference Changes as quickly as Wind Direction in Lethbridge

Feb 20, 2016 | 12:59 PM

LETHBRIDGE: The wind of change has blown through Lethbridge once again, as shown in the latest Provincial Voter intention survey done by the Lethbridge College Citizen Society Research (CSR) Lab.

After the resounding Conservative upset in the May 5th, 2015, Provincial election, many of Alberta’s political pundits noted an overwhelming electoral desire for change.  Some pointed to an outright punishment of Conservatives for their arrogance and disdain for the electorate. Newly minted Premier and Conservative leader Jim Prentice, wasn’t able to turn the tide of anger generated by his predecessor Alison Redford. It didn’t help that Prentice snookered the then-leader of the Wildrose Party, Danielle Smith, and a number of her fellow MLA’s, to cross the floor and sit under the Conservative banner.

The last election outcome saw the New Democratic Party elected to form Alberta’s government for the first time in the party’s history, after the Conservative’s 44-year grip on power. The party even won seats in numerous PC strongholds, including both seats in Lethbridge.

However, voter angst may have mellowed and Lethbridge voters are reassessing their voting preference. The Lethbridge College CSR Lab conducted a survey early this month, in which respondents were asked their voting intention if an election were called now.  The poll shows the NDP dropped to second place support in Lethbridge-West and third in Lethbridge-East.

In the last election, the NDP’s Shannon Phillips captured Lethbridge-West with 59.5% of the vote, defeating incumbent Conservative Greg Weadick, and Marie Fitzpatrick took Lethbridge-East with 47.6%, defeating new-comer Tammy Perlich, who won the PC nomination after Bridget Pastoor retired from politics. While the Wildrose had solid candidates in the election, they both finished third in voting.

If an election were called this month, the College survey shows 31.1% of voters in Lethbridge-West would vote Progressive Conservative again, with 25.6% voting NDP and the Wildrose coming in third at 18.7%.  In Lethbridge-East, 31.5% of voters would support the Conservatives, with 21.5% voting Wildrose and the New Democratic Party garnering 20.3% of decided supporters.

While the NDP remains a solid competitor in Alberta, CSR-Lab information indicates the Lethbridge results mirror province-wide surveys which show the NDP has lost support across the board.

Other statistics of note show the Wildrose Party has significant support from middle and upper income residents in Lethbridge, while PC’s is strongest among upper income residents. There is also significant gaps in gender support between the NDP and Wildrose, while the ND gathers increased support from those who note limited to no church attendance.

 The CSR-Lab surveyed 834 randomly selected adults in the city, between February 6th to the 10th, under the supervision of College faculty member and Political Scientist Faron Ellis.  Details of the Voter Intention survey can be viewed on the college website.