MRU’s Duane Bratt not surprised by UCP victory in provincial election

“If there was one, it was the size of the popular vote gap. The seat total, I actually won the office pool, so I’m happy about that. It’s interesting on the popular vote as there was a 22-point spread even though polls that had it at 10 points also predicted the same amount of seat count. There weren’t a lot of surprises in the campaign or the result.”

The unofficial voter turnout shows that nearly 70 percent of Albertans voted in the provincial election, which is the highest in decades.

Bratt knew that the turnout this time around was going to be higher, but he was predicting about 60 percent and not 70.

“That is remarkable. We haven’t seen numbers like that since the 1970s. It says that it was a competitive election and that there were voters who had never voted before that came out. In particular, I think men under the age of 35. The economic downturn has disproportionately hurt them, I think many of them had never voted before, and they came out in droves,” Bratt said.

As far as the message that the UCP victory says, Bratt believes it’s that the economy matters.

“If you had a generic ballot that didn’t specify party, and you saw the economic downturn that Alberta suffered for four years, you would toss out the government. Especially in light of sustained scandals involving the UCP that had no impact because what mattered were jobs, budget deficits, pipelines and investment.”

Bratt doesn’t think that people were upset with the NDP because they believed the former government caused the economic downturn. Rather, it was that they were seen as having a lack of adequate response to the situation.

“That they made a bad situation worse, in the words of Jason Kenney, by increasing corporate taxes, bringing in a carbon tax just as the price of oil was dropping and that they didn’t cut back on spending which led to large budget deficits,” he continued. “I think the NDP could’ve argued that laying off teachers isn’t going to bring back oil service workers, but they didn’t really make that argument during the campaign.”

The official seat count, with vote anywhere ballots still in the process of being counted, has the UCP with 63 and the NDP with 24.

It’ll be the first time in quite a while that the province has seen only two parties in the legislature, and Bratt says it’s going to be a very different dynamic.

“I have made the case that we have had a dominant one-party system for a long time in this province, so going to two parties is actually an improvement,” Bratt stated with a laugh.

“I do feel bad for the Alberta Party because they raised their vote total from two percent to nine percent, they were in the leader’s debate, they ran candidates in every riding, but the absence of winning a seat is going to hurt them in the future.”

Bratt also went as far to say that the NDP opposition will be the strongest we’ve ever seen in Alberta when the next legislature sits.

“Typically, we elect governments for a very long time, and when we kick them out, there’s nothing left. The NDP still has about 24/25 seats, and they re-elected 11 former ministers along with Rachel Notley. They’re all going to stick around knowing government files, so they’ll be able to hold the new government to account.”

In contrast, Bratt explained, when Notley and the NDP won in 2015, there were 70 brand new people with only two ministers left on the PC bench of nine seats.

“I think the NDP is going to have a strong opposition, and they’ve got representation across the province. Yes, they swept almost every seat in Edmonton, but they have a seat in Lethbridge, they won a couple of seats in Calgary and possibly more depending on how the advance vote count plays out.”

In Lethbridge, Nathan Neudorf turfed Maria Fitzpatrick in Lethbridge-East while Shannon Phillips was declared the projected winner in Lethbridge-West but the margin is close with the vote anywhere votes to go.

Bratt says that’s no surprise either as there’s always been a gap between West and East in Lethbridge, and there’s always been a difference between Lethbridge and the surrounding communities.

“For rural Alberta, especially rural Southern Alberta, they have been on the opposition benches since 2012. First, they voted Wildrose, and then they voted Wildrose against the PCs and the NDP. Now they’re in caucus and a major part of that caucus, so we’ll have to see what changes that incurs.”

One of the most asked questions since Tuesday is, just how fast can the new government act?

“The joke yesterday was why hasn’t the price of oil doubled? I mean, Kenney was elected the night before, but it’ll take a while. I think the Kenney people believe that just a shift in government will convince investors to come back into the province, even before his policies take effect, but Kenney plans very rapid action. He expects a cabinet by the end of the month, and he’s talked about the summer of repeal. Much of their action this summer is going to be getting rid of the carbon tax, lowering the corporate tax, and setting up their various initiatives against Ottawa,” Bratt stated.

by Aaron Mahoney

MRU’s Duane Bratt not surprised by UCP victory in provincial election

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