Updated modelling - Gov't Modelling

By Dori Modney with files from Government of Alberta

Updated COVID-19 stats show modelling numbers can be reduced

Apr 28, 2020 | 5:26 PM

EDMONTON, AB. — In laying out new COVID-19 modeling for the province, Premier Jason Kenney noted that revised data shows Albertans are making a critical difference in the fight against the pandemic. He added, the number of Albertans hospitalized and in intensive care is well below what was originally projected.

The Government has introduced a new “low” modelling scenario estimating 298 Albertans will require hospitalization and 95 will require critical care when the virus reaches its peak. If current trends continue, this scenario will become the most likely scenario for Alberta.

“While this is good news, we must remain vigilant. While we are a ways off of returning to our normal way of life, we are working as a government around the clock on our phased approach to relaunch.”

The health measures Kenney said they will keep an eye include hospitalization and ICU admissions and the rate of growth of cases as a percentage of testing.

“We continue to refine our modelling in order to ensure our health-care system is prepared. While we are still a ways off from returning to our normal way of life, our government is working around the clock on a phased approach to relaunch our economy safely. It is essential Albertans continue to exercise common sense and follow public health guidance so we can get the economy moving again as quickly as possible.”

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In the process of updating the modelling, Alberta Health answered the question of why we’re seeing lower hospitalization rates in Alberta than elsewhere.

Premier Kenney explains it’s because we have the youngest population in the country and we’re testing more people than other jurisdictions.

“This higher rate of testing, means we have a higher proportion of confirmed cases, with relatively weak symptoms, that do not require acute or critical care in a hospital. Also, younger populations often do not experience symptoms that are as severe as older people and, therefore, are not as likely to require hospitalization.”

Updated modelling scenarios continue to estimate that Alberta’s outbreak will reach its peak in late May. However, the number of Albertans hospitalized at the peak of the virus is predicted to be lower than originally estimated. This reflects Alberta’s experience over the past few weeks and the proportion of cases actually entering hospital and intensive care units.

The updated probable scenario has 596 people requiring hospitalization at the peak of the virus. That’s down from 818 in the original modelling. The updated elevated scenario sees a drop to 745, compared to 1,570 in the original modelling.

Quick facts:

The model uses several key assumptions, including:

— not all cases are detected

— transmission is more common within an age group, rather than between age groups

— there is no asymptomatic transmission

— people are infectious for five to 10 days

— all ICU patients require ventilation

— overall, nine per cent of cases are hospitalized and two per cent require ICU, but this varies significantly by age. The low scenario assumes 4.5 per cent of cases are hospitalized and one per cent require ICU, which aligns with actual results.

Any individual exhibiting symptoms of COVID-19, including cough, fever, runny nose, sore throat or shortness of breath, is eligible for testing. People can access testing by completing the COVID-19 self-assessment online. A separate self-assessment tool is available for health-care and shelter workers, enforcement and first responders. After completing the form, there is no need to call 811.