Daily COVID-19 cases and deaths in Canada. (Public Health Agency of Canada)

By David Opinko

COVID-19 trends and forecasts

COVID-19 slowing in Canada, but lifting restrictions early can cause rebound: Ottawa

Jul 8, 2020 | 11:03 AM

OTTAWA, ONT – The Government of Canada has released its latest update for COVID-19 as well as short-term modelling projections.

As of Monday, July 6, 105,935 Canadians have contracted the virus. The median age of those infected is 49 and slightly more women have been impacted (56 per cent of cases) than men (44 per cent).

Approximately eight per cent of those who have tested positive have died as a result of the virus with the country currently sitting at 8,693 deaths.

The positive news is that the virus has slowed down considerably since its peak in late April and early May.

At the peak, we were seeing as many as 1,700 new cases per day and 170 deaths per day. As of early July, that has gone down to around 350 cases per day and 25 deaths per day.

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Hospitalizations and ICU admissions have been on a steady and consistent decline as well.

Outbreaks detected to date point out vulnerabilities in closed and crowded spaces, as the greatest numbers of cases and outbreaks have been observed in long-term care and seniors’ homes, hospitals, meat and poultry plants, and certain agricultural work settings.

Over the next two weeks, the government expects the number of infections to rise anywhere from 2,000 to 7,000 and deaths to increase by 340.

While the numbers are certainly smaller than we have seen elsewhere in the world, officials are still concerned about public health restrictions being lifted too soon.

Dynamic modelling shows that lifting population-based measures such as school or business closures without strengthening other controls like testing and contact tracing will likely cause the epidemic to rebound significantly.

The advice given to the public continues to be the same – maintain a physical distance of two metres from others in public when you can, wear a face mask at times where you cannot, limit your number of close contacts, practice good hygiene by washing your hands and using hand sanitizer, and staying home when you feel sick.

You can access the full Update on COVID-19 in Canada: Epidemiology and Modelling report through this link.

Recent transmission hotspots and outbreaks. (Public Health Agency of Canada)

Daily COVID-19 cases and deaths in Canada. (Public Health Agency of Canada)

Daily hospitalizations and ICU admissions in Canada. (Public Health Agency of Canada)

Projections for COVID-19 from July 2-17. (Public Health Agency of Canada)

Impact of public health measures on the COVID-19 epidemic. (Public Health Agency of Canada)

Comparing COVID-19 daily cases across 10 countries. (Public Health Agency of Canada)