By Geoff Smith (@smithco on Twitter)

Coming retirements may help labour situation, professor says

May 3, 2017 | 12:25 PM

LETHBRIDGE – A University of Lethbridge professor says it’s an “open question” what kind of impact the baby boom generation will have as it reaches retirement age.

National numbers from the 2016 census show growth in the 65-plus age category faster than it’s been in 70 years. But that doesn’t necessarily mean we should expect a labour shortage, at least not immediately.

Susan McDaniel, professor of sociology and Canada research chair on global population, said the numbers have to be looked at in context. In an area of higher unemployment like what Alberta is currently experiencing, retirements can open up opportunities for younger people.

“If there was a problem with a shortage of labour, for example, we wouldn’t have the unemployment rates we do,” McDaniel said. She explained that the real surge in retirements isn’t likely for years to come yet, with the youngest baby boomers only at age 50.

While the number of Canadians over 65 surpassed those under 15 for the first time ever, that is not yet the case in the prairies. In fact, Lethbridge had the highest percentage of children age 14 and under of any census metropolitan area.

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“The major factor, I would say, is that we have younger people here,” McDaniel said. “We have more people of child-bearing age. And that is because of the boom in the economy in the prairies for the most part… where we still see that effect of migrants coming here from other provinces, but also from other countries”

But McDaniel adds some of the young people tallied by the census in 2016 may have already moved on due to the oil bust, adding that the numbers only represent a “snapshot in time.”

For the time being, she doesn’t expect these numbers to put serious pressure on government services such as health care, due to the relative health of the baby boomers. But that will start to change once they reach their 80s.

She also points to the disparity in available services for the elderly between urban and rural areas, especially considering it’s the rural areas that tend to have older populations.

“Young people migrate out and other people don’t; they stay put,” McDaniel explained. “So we’ve got this gap, that services exist in cities and the eldest population are in the countryside.” She added that gap needs to be on the radar.

“People wind up in hospital much more often than they need to because they can’t get home care… It’s a huge issue. It’s a huge challenge.”