New Brunswick Tories to choose from seven candidates for new leader

FREDERICTON — Progressive Conservatives in New Brunswick gather this weekend for a leadership convention, and a political scientist says with seven candidates in the running for the top job, it’s anyone’s race to win.

“Seven makes the outcome a bit more unpredictable because it is a run-off format where the winner does have to get more than 50 per cent of the vote,” said Tom Bateman of St. Thomas University.

He expects the voting could go to a second or third ballot — adding to the unpredictability.

“Michael Ignatieff comes immediately to mind,” Bateman said. Ignatieff, who enjoyed a slight edge going into the 2006 federal Liberal leadership convention, lost to Stephane Dion who moved into the lead in subsequent ballots.

He also pointed out that Joe Clark came out of nowhere to take the federal Conservative leadership in 1976.

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However, Bateman said having seven leadership candidates is also a good sign that people within the party believe it’s moving forward and has a chance to win the next election in two years.

In the running are MLAs Blaine Higgs, Brian Macdonald and Jake Stewart, former MLA Jean Dube, former MP Mike Allen, former Saint John mayor Mel Norton, and Moncton lawyer Monica Barley.

Many of the candidates have been actively campaigning with the use of social media, television ads and signage.

Bateman said not all of the candidates are in the race to win.

“Several candidates will be in here not to really try to win it, but to get their name out there, get some experience and work towards a run possibly down the road, and maybe in the interim become a cabinet minister in a new Conservative government after the next election,” he said.

Bateman said the new leader needs the traits of electability, experience, and some kind of base of familiarity among New Brunswickers. He said that’s easier for someone who already has a seat in the legislature.

The new leader will be chosen Saturday afternoon in Fredericton, but party members can also vote at other locations throughout the province.

According to the leadership rules, the last place candidate and anyone who gets less than 15 per cent of the vote is eliminated from the next ballot.

A second ballot can only have a maximum of four candidates, while there can only be two names on a third ballot.

Kevin Bissett, The Canadian Press

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