The three projected models of COVID-19 over the next several months. (Government of Alberta)

By David Opinko

Province releases projections for COVID-19 trends in Alberta

Apr 8, 2020 | 3:49 PM

LETHBRIDGE, AB – The Government of Alberta has released comparisons for COVID-19 to other jurisdictions and where the province may be headed in the future.

Compared to the country as a whole, and especially in contrast to other countries like the U.S., Spain, Germany, Italy, and others, Alberta is doing well so far.

As of Wednesday’s update, there were 1,423 confirmed cases of the virus in Alberta. This gives the province a rate of 3.11 infections per 10,000 members of the population.

Quebec has the highest rate in the country at 11 cases per 10,000.

To help analyze what supports might be needed in the future, the provincial government has developed three scenarios for how the virus might progress in the coming months.

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Under the “Probable Scenario”, for every one case, one-to-two additional people get infected.

This would result in moderate growth that would result in a fairly high success rate in containing.

“Given our early and aggressive interventions and contact tracing to limit spread, this is expected to be the most likely scenario for Alberta.”

The probable scenario sees 818 people being hospitalized by late May, including 232 needing critical care.

The “Elevated Scenario” sees two people getting infected for every new case confirmed.

This scenario would see Alberta trend along similar lines to Hubei province in China.

Planning for this scenario is prudent and responsible given the catastrophic impacts should the health system become overwhelmed.

The elevated scenario sees 1,570 people being hospitalized by the beginning of May, including 392 needing critical care.

Under the final hypothetical, called the “Extreme Scenario”, three more people would get infected for every new case.

This assumes that there are limited and late interventions so COVID-19 spreads rapidly through the population.

Healthcare Capacity:

The South Health Zone currently has 12 hospitals (12% provincially), 645 hospital beds (7.6%), 24 ICU beds (8.1%), and 31 ventilators (6%).

Alberta Hospital capacity – Gov’t of Alberta

In looking at infection rates and deaths, Premier Jason Kenney cautioned against viewing Covid-19 as impacting only the elderly.

Most who end up with the virus are younger and while the symptoms may not manifest, they need to play a role in limiting the spread, because as the virus spreads among younger age groups, the higher the chances that more elderly people will become infected.

You can find a link to the full modelling data at Covid-19 Modelling.