(Lethbridge News Now)

By Justin Goulet

Enjoy the fall weather, winter may not be as “brutal” as some may think: senior climatologist

Oct 12, 2020 | 8:00 AM

LETHBRIDGE, AB – Mother Nature has been kind to southern Alberta this fall.

Lethbridge, in particular, has seen some beautiful conditions, especially compared to a massive snowstorm that hit the city and region in September of last year.

READ MORE: Relief from storm in sight, but be prepared for colder nights

So far, fingers crossed, Lethbridge has yet to see the white stuff come down this season.

Senior climatologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, David Phillips, told LNN it’s important to appreciate the weather we’ve got and enjoy it while it lasts.

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“The average temperature in October, for the afternoon, would be about 13.7 [degrees]. The afternoon temperatures so far, in the first week of October, have been like 23.9. This is clearly a record setting. Now, it’s not going to stay that way,” Phillips said.

He noted temperatures are forecast to be around that 12 to 15-degree mark this week, but that’s still a far cry from winter-like conditions residents have seen before this time of year.

Phillips explained that typically, the nice weather in the fall doesn’t necessarily last a long time, as autumn is seen as a “transition season” between the summer and winter months.

“It’s when winter wants to duke it out with summer – summer wants to hold on and winter wants to get a foothold. I mean, that’s really what the transition seasons are all about,” he said.

He added transition seasons are usually shorter and can deliver a variety of conditions, but this year, fall has treated southern Albertans very well.

The temperatures in the 20s seen last week are about seven to eight degrees warmer than what the region would normally see this time of year.

“This may be summer’s last hurrah. It’s hard and the days are certainly shorter…you’re not going to hold on to it,” Phillips commented, adding the shift to the more usual temperatures this week may cause a shock to some people.

However, he expects Mother Nature to keep bringing warmer conditions to the area for a bit longer.

“I think the purpose of fall, more than anything, is to make winter shorter,” he said.

“September in Lethbridge was more than a full degree warmer than normal; precipitation was below normal. You had days that were up to 34.4 [degrees] – I mean, that’s like the dog days of summer, not the waning days of September.”

WINTER OUTLOOK

As previously mentioned, Phillips said he knows the recent conditions won’t last, especially as we approach the winter season, citing a La Nina in store for the region.

The good news, though, is that winter may not be as harsh as some have predicted.

“Typically, a La Nina year brings you a colder winter, usually a snowier winter. When you look at the years over the past, since 1950, there’s been, for example – and I’m going to divide it into two parts; 1950 to the 1990s, that period. There were 12 La Nina’s that were colder than normal and two that were warmer than normal in the winter; two that were drier and two that were snowier. So, you go to the bank on it, I mean, that is what clearly a La Nina winter gives to you,” he explained.

“However, something has happened in the last 30 years. Since the 1990s and then the 2000s into 2020, there have been nine La Nina’s. Six have been warmer than normal and three have been colder. Five have been [with] more snow and four [with] less snow. It’s more than just La Nina, it could be climate change. It could be that our winters aren’t what they used to be.”

He added that recent La Nina’s have proven that what’s happened many years ago may not necessarily happen every time there is a La Nina over winter.

“I don’t think it’s [winter] going to be as brutal as some people think it’s going to be because of La Nina,” Phillips said.

“There will be some melting months, some freezing months, we’ll be swearing at the polar vortex, but then there will be some Pacific mildness.”

He believes we could be in store for an up-and-down kind of winter.

“Clearly, we’re not cancelling it [winter] so don’t think that this [fall] weather is going to continue right into January, but my sense is that it’s not the boogeyman that a lot of people think La Nina is,” he said.

“In recent years, in the last 30 years, they’re just not what our grandparents and parents described as winter as being in a La Nina year where there’s more Arctic air than Pacific air.”

Phillips added that this year, we’ve been fortunate to get a “legitimate fall” and again, reminded people to enjoy the more comfortable conditions while they last.

“You can be proven to have egg on your face a lot, but the models, the best science tells us that, the near future is very positive, so get out there and enjoy it, don’t hibernate. There will be times to do that [so] get out there and enjoy it,” he told LNN.

“As they say in Newfoundland, it’s good to be alive.”

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