Downtown Lethbridge. (Lethbridge News Now)

By David Opinko

Conference Board of Canada forecasts 2.8-million job losses due to COVID-19

Apr 6, 2020 | 10:20 AM

LETHBRIDGE, AB – It may not come as a surprise to most right now, but COVID-19 has and will likely continue to have a major impact on employment in Canada in the short term.

Given that many provinces, including Alberta, have ordered the closure of non-essential businesses, the Conference Board of Canada says the country will likely see its worst-ever period of job losses in March and April.

“Canada will suffer record job losses in March and April—with lower-wage workers taking the brunt of the hit. The situation is causing us to reassess the economic impact of COVID-19 on the national and regional economies,” states Chief Economist Pedro Antunes.

The exact number of job losses per sector, as provided by the Conference Board of Canada, are illustrated below:

Forecast Job Losses by Sector. (Conference Board of Canada)

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The group says, altogether, this will amount to a loss of nearly 15 per cent of total employment.

Industries that pay lower wages on average have been hit the hardest.

“Our estimates suggest that nearly 16 per cent of total job losses—roughly 444,000 jobs—will be in the full- and limited-service restaurants industry, where wages averaged $386 weekly (including overtime) in 2019.”

“Amusement and recreation, personal care, traveller accommodation, and clothing stores together account for another 527,000 lost jobs—industries in which wages averaged just $508 per week in 2019.”

The Conference Board says their estimates are supported by the number of employment insurance (EI) claims, which topped 2 million over the last few weeks.

Thankfully, Canadians who have been laid off due to COVID-19 can now apply for financial aid through the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) and employers can take advantage of the Temporary Wage Subsidy for Employers, the impact to peoples’ bottom lines won’t be as severe as it could have been.

Assuming that social distancing measures are slowly relaxed, the Conference Board believes job growth will pick up in May and accelerate in the second half of 2020.